Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Can Tillerson Find Common Ground with Moscow?

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson speaks with the media after he greeted Chinese President Xi Jinping at Palm Beach International Airport on April 6, 2017 in West Palm Beach, Florida.
Syria will be the central topic of discussion at Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's visit to Moscow this week. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
Syria will be the central topic of discussion at Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's visit to Moscow this week, following President Donald Trump's decision to launch 59 Tomahawk missiles against a Syrian military base that suddenly and dramatically heightened tensions between the two nations.
Whether the U.S. and Russia can cooperate is unclear, particularly as U.S. intelligence agencies investigate the extent to which Russia may have been complicit in Assad's chemical weapons attack on April 4 against civilians, including many children.

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Sharp rhetoric has escalated quickly between Washington and Moscow. Immediately after Thursday's strike, Tillerson raised questions about Russia's involvement, saying Moscow was either "complicit or simply incompetent" in its attempts to prevent a chemical weapons attack and that Russia had been "outmaneuvered by Assad." In a joint statement, Russia and Iran reportedly said the attack had crossed a "red line" and that they would "respond with force" to future hostility.
Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov backed away from those remarks, indicating he was uncertain of the source, but the Russian president and his Iranian counterpart, Hassan Rouhani, were said to have discussed the strikes during a phone call Sunday and characterized the attack as unacceptable.
Going into the summit, it was yet unclear whether Tillerson, who has deep connections in Moscow having previously served as the CEO of Exxon Mobil, would actually meet with Putin. Russia said on Monday the two would not meet in Moscow.
It also remains unclear what either Moscow or Washington hopes to achieve in Syria.
Russia has fought in Syria in support of the Assad regime since 2015 and has significant interests there, not in the least its only foreign naval base at Tartus and an air base in Latakia created after its intervention. It has deployed thousands of forces and dozens of warplanes to help quell the civil uprising against the government.
Yet Moscow may not be prepared to fight for Assad to stay in power, pushing instead for some sort of alternative rule that leaves its influence in Syria intact.
The guided-missile destroyer USS Porter launches a Tomahawk land-attack missile in the Mediterranean Sea, Friday, April 7, 2017. The United States blasted a Syrian air base with a barrage of cruise missiles in fiery retaliation for this week's gruesome chemical weapons attack against civilians.
Photos: Trump's Syria Attack
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Intentions for Syria are also unclear on the U.S. side, where top members of the Trump administration appear to have differing opinions on the extent to which the U.S. should determine Assad's fate.
Tillerson himself appears open to Assad staying in power, telling CBS' "Face the Nation on Sunday, "the president has been quite clear: First and foremost, we must defeat ISIS."
Speaking later on ABC, Tillerson said he hopes he can create a political process with Russia that would then allow for the Syrian people to ultimately decide on Assad's fate.
Nikki Haley, Trump's ambassador to the U.N., told CNN, "we don't see a peaceful Syria with Assad in there."
White House spokesman Sean Spicer said Monday the ideas do not contradict and that it's possible to focus primarily on the Islamic State group, or ISIS, and also create "the environment for a change in political leadership."
When asked about any contradiction on Sunday, Army Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, the national security adviser, brought it back to Russia.
"This is a great opportunity for the Russian leadership to re-evaluate what they're doing, why they are supporting a regime that is committing mass murder against its own people," McMaster told Fox News Sunday. "And so, Russia could be part of the solution."

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United States' Ambassador United Nations and current Security Council President Nikki Haley listens as Syria's Deputy U.N. Ambassador Mounzer Mounzer speaks during a Security Council meeting on the situation in Syria, Friday, April 7, 2017 at United Nations headquarters. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)

Pentagon Questions Russia’s Response to U.S. Strike in Syria


McMaster added, "everyone in the world sees Russia as part of the problem," prompting the central question of whether Moscow has any intention of cooperating with the Trump administration.
Russia was initially furious at the U.S. Tomahawk strike into Syria last week. with its officials immediately claiming they had cut off the communication channel they established with the U.S. to deconflict the airspace over Syria – a claim the Pentagon at first contradicted and then backed away from discussing publicly over the weekend. A spokesman for U.S. Central Command on Monday said the U.S. would no longer comment on its methods of communications with Russia.
Pentagon officials also confirmed last week, following the Tomahawk strikes, that they had tracked a drone circling above the hospital where the victims of Tuesday's chemical attack were being treated. An airstrike shortly after destroyed the hospital, which the officials believed was designed to eliminate evidence of the chemical attack.
Defense officials this week would offer no further comment, saying they had passed the information over to intelligence agencies investigating whether the drone was Russian, a claim which, if true, could implicate Moscow in the Assad chemical attack and make future cooperation more difficult.

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